Goodbye to the Decade of Dumb

Here we are on New Years Day, 2010. Last night we bid farewell to 2009 and I say to it "good riddance, and don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out."

I'm optimistic about 2010, but I wasn't in love with 2009 on a number of levels. We were shocked and saddened when Grandma Hall passed away unexpectedly, and later when Gaylen was diagnosed with Cancer and succumbed to it within just a few weeks. Unemployment rose to over 10% nationwide (over 17% including discouraged job seekers and those whose unemployment benefits expired) as we experienced the aftermath of the most severe financial crisis since the 1930's. I spent much of 2009 paying the price for some pretty dumb financial decisions that I and others made in 2008 and earlier. From a financial standpoint, the last decade was arguably one of the dumbest on record. The asset bubbles that got pumped up over the last ten years or so in the housing and securities markets have threatened to tank the entire US and world economies. In late 2008 and throughout 2009, the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the US and world markets, and we have averted a collapse, and the financial markets rebounded strongly throughout the second half of 2009. Now we'll see what will be the longer term effect of the USA having turned itself into the biggest debtor nation in the world, and being tens of trillions of dollars in debt. My personal opinion is that ultimately there are only two possible solutions to cure this totally unsustainable level of debt: inflation or default. The government will have to either inflate the currency by devaluing the dollar, or it will default on its debts. A large-scale disaster or global war could facilitate one of both of these "solutions." It's anyone's guess when either one of these things, or some combination of the two, will happen, but if they do, they will create serious hardship for Americans and millions of people around the world.

I suspect that in the coming months we may have a period of what feels like relative prosperity--the calm before the storm. I hope that everyone in the family will use whatever time we have left before the storm--whether it turns out to be weeks, months, or years, we won't know exactly how long until the opportunity has passed--to prepare. My official counsel as Dad and official family Geezer-in-Chief is to do everything possible to get out of debt and stay out of debt. Please take it from me, who have put my hand on the debt stove enough times to know better, that it burns and hurts a lot. Especially consumer debt. I hope you understand and believe that credit card companies are not your friends. They will lure you into having what you want now and when the debt piles up (and it always does when you buy on credit), the consequences will make your life miserable long after you no longer are enjoying whatever it was that you bought with borrowed money. Having a mortgage or monthly rent payment, and paying just basic living expenses is (or eventually will be) challenging enough. Don't sign up for long term slavery and distress by buying stuff with debt. Ok, that's my message for the day (or maybe the entire year if I don't start posting more often.) After all, I've got a new Wii to play with, er, I mean work out with (bought with 100% debt free dollars, thanks to your awesome Mom.)

Now I'm going to get on with the New Year with a shiny new motto--"Less dumb equals more happy" Ask me how I'm doing with that in a few weeks. Love, Dad

Heisenberg and Mormon

I started this post several days ago. I'm finally getting around to posting it.

For some inexplicable reason, I woke up this morning thinking about Heisenberg. Werner Heisenburg was a German physicist in the early 20th century. He helped invent (or discover) Quantum Mechanics, which is something that makes you sound really smart when you bring it up in casual conversation at a party, but in reality, you and I and just about everyone else on the planet really haven't got the slightest clue about what we're talking about. Heisenberg was a pretty smart guy, but he worked for the 3rd Reich, and luckily, he wasn't as smart as Einstein or Bohr or some of the other brainiacs we had on our side, or WWII might have ended differently, in which case we'd all be speaking German instead of English today. We'd have probably even ended up with a bunch of politicians and activists promoting socialized medicine. And it might have even meant that we'd also have a bunch radicals running around sounding the alarm about global climate change or crusading against fatty foods, like the Nazis did. Sure glad that nothing like that is happening. But I digress.

Anyway, Heisenberg was supposedly fairly smart, and as part of the quantum physics thingy he helped to invent, he came up with something now known as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. We'll call it the HUP so we can save time and keyboard strokes, and sound like we hang out with brilliant people and talk about quantum physics stuff all the time. The general idea of the HUP is that some pairs of properties are linked in such as way they cannot both be measured precisely at the same time. The more you know about one, then the less you know about the other.
For example, the more you fill your brain with American Idol, the less you know about anything that's actually useful.

If I were a brilliant physicist, I would, in hushed tones, say that the HUP tells us we can't simultaneously know both the position and direction of a mass of particles. We can, for example, know with precision, the direction of the mass, but any individual particle is free to move about at will, and it's impossible to know or predict its location, or where it will end up over time. Or something like that.

You may possibly be asking what any of this has to do with Mormon? That's a brilliant question. As far as I know, Mormon wasn't a quantum physicist. He didn't even have a last name. But he understood the spiritual and social implications of the HUP way before Heisenberg was a twinkle in his daddy's eye. At some point in the decline of Nephite society, Mormon and Moroni knew perfectly well that their society was going to be destroyed, because they had ripened in wickedness, and there was an everlasting decree on the land that ensured that any nation possessing the land would be swept off of it when they were "ripe in iniquity." So they knew that the "mass" of society was toast because they didn't and wouldn't repent. But they didn't know whether any one individual would repent and turn away from their wickedness. Each person had their free will, and could change direction at any time, in spite of the direction of the mass.


So Mormon and Moroni had a work to do, and they continued their efforts to bring souls to Christ, to the very end. They didn't give up hope that even if their labors among the Nephites were in vain, they would meet many souls in the kingdom of God; souls who would repent and come unto Christ because of what they and other prophets had written in the Book of Mormon. Each of us are free to choose whether we'll follow the mass of society off the cliff that they're racing toward today, or to turn toward the Savior and follow Him.

Love, Dad

My Personal Best

As you are no doubt aware, when it comes to real exercise, nobody in the Brand family better impersonates a giant slug than yours truly. I've been thinking about getting into running for quite some time now. It's not that I really like running. I just like the idea of running. You know, the idea of being in shape and having good looking legs, and not wheezing like our dog Joy every time I climb the stairs or walk more than 20 yards at a time.

So I like the thought of being a runner, and I've thought about it occasionally over the last few years. And every time i think about it, I lie down until I'm able to think about something else, which usually happens in 4 or 5 seconds.


Every time, that is, until about a month ago.

A month ago, Brittney tricked me into doing more than just thinking about it. Somehow she got me to actually sign up for a race. And as you probably know, it's not just any race, but a half marathon. Could we have done a 5K or something reasonable for a first race? Oh no. It's got to be a half marathon. 13.1 miles of fun on August 8th. And we have to be there in the Provo canyon at some awful hour like 5:30am. In the morning. I think I've got a pretty good testimony that the Lord made all the hours between 8am and midnight. And it's a pretty sure bet that the devil made all the others.

The good news is that I've actually stuck with the running thing now for a few weeks, and it has reminded me that having a hard fast deadline can help you stick to a goal and a schedule like nothing else can. I've been running 3 days per week without fail, sometimes 4 days, for a month now, and I guarantee you that without that August 8th deadline, I wound have found a way to miss a bunch of those running days.

Saturday, July 4th, I ran farther than this almost-49 year old body has perhaps ever run without stopping. A total of 4.4 miles. I was sure it was over 5 miles at the time, but tonight I drove it in the car and the odometer says 4.4 miles. Even so, that's a personal best. And in doing my personal best, it doesn't really matter at all that there are about 5.61 billion people on earth that can run farther and faster than me. It doesn't even matter that at least 7 or 8 of those people are better looking that me too. I just feel great that I did my personal best and its good to experience a sense of accomplishment and progress toward a goal. It's good medicine.

My Best Day EVER

Yes, this has officially been the best day ever. Thank you all for most excellent and awesome Father's Day photo card creation. I loved the photos and especially the notes. I love you all.

Ok, so I'm a slug

Yes, I'm posting for the first time since January. Not exactly a model blogger, but here's another post for posterity. Today is Father's Day. I'm basking in the glory of being king for a day, and looking forward to some mighty fine food off the high-octane backyard grill.
Oh yeeeeeaaaaah.

A Reading Assignment from Dad

Most of you have never heard of Clayton Christensen. He's a Harvard professor and business consultant who is famous for his research and publications on disruptive innovations and their effect in the marketplace. He's a pretty smart guy, even in the brainy crowd he hangs around with. He's also a faithful Latter-Day Saint. The photo above is of him on his mission to Korea. Here's his Bio

Can I make a reading assignment to our family for the week? I'd like you all to read something he wrote. It's called "Why I Belong and Why I Believe"

Click here and take a few moments to read it. I would like to get your comments about it either in the blog post comments or via email.

Too good to be true (the overnight millionaire scam)

I thought this was good advice from Seth Godin's blog http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/11/too-good-to-be.html

Too good to be true (the overnight millionaire scam)

You probably don't need to read this, but I bet you know people who do. Please feel free to repost or forward:

Times are tough, and many say they are going to be tougher. That makes some people more focused, it turns others desperate.

You may be tempted at some point to try to make a million dollars. To do it without a lot of effort or skill or risk. Using a system, some shortcut perhaps, or mortgaging something you already own.

There are countless infomercials and programs and systems that promise to help you do this. There are financial instruments and investments and documents you can sign that promise similar relief from financial stress.

Resist.

There are four ways to make a million dollars. Luck. Patient effort. Skill. Risk.

(Five if you count inheritance, and six if you count starting with two million dollars).

Conspicuously missing from this list are effortless 1-2-3 systems that involve buying an expensive book or series of tapes. Also missing are complicated tax shelters or other 'proven' systems. The harder someone tries to sell you this solution, the more certain you should be that it is a scam. If no skill or effort is required, then why doesn't the promoter just hire a bunch of people at minimum wage and keep the profits?

There are literally a million ways to make a good living online, ten million ways to start and thrive with your own business offline. But all of these require effort, and none of them are likely to make you a million dollars.

Short version of my opinion: If someone offers to sell you the secret system, don't buy it. If you need to invest in a system before you use it, walk away. If you are promised big returns with no risk and little effort, you know the person is lying to you. Every time.